I
have no idea whether the polls are right. Neither do they. Consider
for a moment what they are trying to tell us: a month ago it was massive Tory
landslide and Labour oblivion.
They
are used in public discourse as if they are tools of prediction, but all their
predictions from April are now reversed. It's like predicting which team will
win the league, and updating your prediction after every match.
All
it's showing is what those of us on the ground knew all along:
1.
Theresa May is a cardboard cutout politician with no depth or gravitas,
held up by hot air spewing from billionaire owned newspapers and establishment
broadcasters.
2.
All Labour leaders get vilified. (Unless they actually get in bed
with the Murdochs). Brown and Miliband were both subject to character
assassination. Any of the bland weathercock 2015 candidates would have
been (Cooper would have been portrayed as Mrs Balls, crashed the economy.
Burnham would have been Mr U-turn, privatised the NHS, Kendall would have
been shouty little girl). Angela Eagle or Owen Smith would have been
mauled worse than Corbyn, given their dreadful media performances last summer.
We should *never* base our politics or leadership choice on appeasing
tabloids.
3.
People actually like Corbyn once they get to see him, rather than hear
second hand smears from his political opponents (of both main parties).
His honesty and authenticity is an asset. These are personal
qualities; compare with Diane Abbot: similar politics but comes across as a
question dodger.
4.
The most pernicious damage to Corbyn, which I hear every single time I go out
door knocking, whether in heartlands or marginals, in Newcastle or around the
region, is "but even his own side don't support him". The
damage wasn't done by the Tories, people expect Punch & Judy politics.
The damage was done by the dummy-spitting Mandleson crowd, Jess Philips,
and Mirror and Guardian journalists.
5.
The "hard left" "back to the '70s" policies of Corbyn
and his supporters is neither of those things. The poll shift has finally
put to rest the lie that a strong social democratic platform is unpopular.
We released one and jumped ten points in the polls.
6.
The size and strength of the Labour Party's grass roots does matter.
Our ground activity and social media is having an effect. The Party
establishment needs to nurture the members, not fear them.
7.
If there is any kind of Tory government after the election we will
certainly see a major economic slowdown in the next two years. We are
currently bumping along with the weakest of recoveries based entirely on
consumer debt and property speculation. Both are unsustainable and led to
the 2007 crash. Factor in a hard Brexit and we'll see a grinding recession
within 2 years.
A
clear Tory majority (20+) will see them ditch May with her toxic Brexit legacy
and hold out to 2022. (She needs 50+ to hold on).
A
weak Tory majority will see increasing Brexit chaos and government defeats in
Parliament, and the possibility of a vote of no confidence before 2022, with
the probability increasing in direct proportion to their reduced majority.
A
Tory minority government will certainly collapse quickly, possibly even before
the end of the Brexit process.
Get
your shoes on. Get your phones out. Every vote counts.
(author unknown)
