I have no idea whether the polls are right.  Neither do they.  Consider for a moment what they are trying to tell us: a month ago it was massive Tory landslide and Labour oblivion.  

They are used in public discourse as if they are tools of prediction, but all their predictions from April are now reversed.  It's like predicting which team will win the league, and updating your prediction after every match.  

All it's showing is what those of us on the ground knew all along: 
1.  Theresa May is a cardboard cutout politician with no depth or gravitas, held up by hot air spewing from billionaire owned newspapers and establishment broadcasters.  

2.  All Labour leaders get vilified.  (Unless they actually get in bed with the Murdochs).  Brown and Miliband were both subject to character assassination.   Any of the bland weathercock 2015 candidates would have been (Cooper would have been portrayed as Mrs Balls, crashed the economy.  Burnham would have been Mr U-turn, privatised the NHS, Kendall would have been shouty little girl).  Angela Eagle or Owen Smith would have been mauled worse than Corbyn, given their dreadful media performances last summer.  We should *never* base our politics or leadership choice on appeasing tabloids.  

3.  People actually like Corbyn once they get to see him, rather than hear second hand smears from his political opponents (of both main parties).  His honesty and authenticity is an asset.  These are personal qualities; compare with Diane Abbot: similar politics but comes across as a question dodger.  

4. The most pernicious damage to Corbyn, which I hear every single time I go out door knocking, whether in heartlands or marginals, in Newcastle or around the region, is "but even his own side don't support him".  The damage wasn't done by the Tories, people expect Punch & Judy politics.  The damage was done by the dummy-spitting Mandleson crowd, Jess Philips, and Mirror and Guardian journalists.  

5.  The "hard left" "back to the '70s" policies of Corbyn and his supporters is neither of those things.  The poll shift has finally put to rest the lie that a strong social democratic platform is unpopular.  We released one and jumped ten points in the polls.  

6.  The size and strength of the Labour Party's grass roots does matter.  Our ground activity and social media is having an effect.  The Party establishment needs to nurture the members, not fear them.  

7.  If there is any kind of Tory government after the election we will certainly see a major economic slowdown in the next two years.  We are currently bumping along with the weakest of recoveries based entirely on consumer debt and property speculation.  Both are unsustainable and led to the 2007 crash.  Factor in a hard Brexit and we'll see a grinding recession within 2 years.  

A clear Tory majority (20+) will see them ditch May with her toxic Brexit legacy and hold out to 2022.   (She needs 50+ to hold on). 

A weak Tory majority will see increasing Brexit chaos and government defeats in Parliament, and the possibility of a vote of no confidence before 2022, with the probability increasing in direct proportion to their reduced majority.  

A Tory minority government will certainly collapse quickly, possibly even before the end of the Brexit process.  

Get your shoes on.  Get your phones out.  Every vote counts.
(author unknown)

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